What do the recent British Election results mean? An Insight to The Outsiders
British Masses are very much politically aware. The scenario needs not be explained to them. It is the outsider, looking for an insight, for whom this article is being written. We will try to state,elaborate,explain and then further analyse what we think had or has the potential to change or even influence to the slightest degree the future political landscape of United Kingdom by this write up.
What made 2017’s elections and its results that unusual and extra ordinary?
Snap elections are always perceived to be unusual but what made this particular one more unusual, was not its pre-mature nature but the way by which it was anticipated. To the corporate Media everything seemed predictable. The question was not who wins but with how much margin the conservatives would win. Never before in the British History such a non competitive elections were expected and that is what really made this, one of the most unusual elections in the electoral history of Britain.
The key reason why British Prime Minister Theresa May called for snap elections, something which stunned her political opponents and something she earlier refused to do, was to get her an undiminished overwhelming majority. When the electoral campaign started she was twenty points ahead of her main opponent Jeremy Corbyn,The Labour Party leader. The lead which seemed irreversible in the given time and a lead if materialised would have doubled her margin of majority. The Political Pundits were even predicting her to take as many as 70 more seats from what she originally had, if the trend continued. It seemed all pre planned from the elections to the massive Tory victory. Only thing which Analysts doubted about was how big a dent would this make on the opposition benches. Such was the level of Theresa May’s confidence that she tweeted not to form a government, had she not received full majority. But upsets are obvious to happen, especially when such is the level of arrogance and over confidence. On the night of the 8th June when the results started to pour in, it got clear that the people have refused to be taken for granted. Hours after Hours the headlines were being made of how many seats Labour Party gained and how many seats Tories lost and by the coming of Dawn it was clear that United Kingdom was heading for an ‘hung parliament’, some thing a month ago no one including I had expected!
So How was this upset made to happen?
The man to whom the credit of this unprecedented electoral upset goes is the Labour Leader, Jeremy Corbyn. The one who was being opposed by his own comrades, the one who was seen to be more of an agitator than a politician. If there was any winner in this marginal tug, certainly it was he. In mere thirty days, through his political skills and charisma, he brought his party from the difference of 20 points to the total vote share of 40 percent. Undoubtedly, it was a miracle transformation. A Party which was otherwise being perceived to be loosing 50 to 100 seats due to him and his determination broke away the very Tory hold and was able to get 30 more seats than what it originally had.
How has Jeremy Corbyn changed the political landscape of UK?
By bringing millions of disfranchised youth back to the political folds and by re-positioning Th Labour from the centre back to the left, undoubtedly Mr Corbyn has changed the socio-political dynamics of Britain. The Corbyn factor basically was the factor of populism and he has undoubtedly demonstrated how left oriented liberal populism can still bring the masses for ones support. Corbyn may leave The Labour sooner or later but this policy of targeting ‘the many not the few’ won’t vapourise any soon! In fact those very comrades of him who earlier wanted to oust him from leadership will now realise that their very MPship is a result of Jeremy’s political style. Such an unexpected success will undoubtedly help Corbyn solidly control not only his own party men but also his critics and opponents. For both the international community and his country’s establishment from now onward, he’ll be the PrimeMinister in waiting. What Mr Corbyn has to do is wait and play his card shrewdly because whenever the present setup will evaporate he and his party will be the next in line!
Resurgence of left in Europe?
Labour’s performance was a hard slap in face of the radical right wingers. Fascism oriented leaders like Trump do not have any chances to channelise the mainstream in Europe. Predicting the resurgence of Left in whole of Europe yet seems to be difficult but for the UK at least for the coming years Power Play is going to be a tug of war between the capitalist Tories and leftist Labours. Once Labour succeeds in holding power only then can this trend be followed in the rest of Europe, as a model of success!
The Scottish Upset: A region which was craving for the call of independence just few years ago has now started to wither away from the nationalists’ hold to the mainstream. The Tories’ unprecedented gains in the Scotland can be seen as a product of Brexit support but Labour regains can not be underestimated just in name of Brexit. Labour did not get gains of call for implementing Brexit. They don’t stand for hard Brexit. Their success shows that the support for remaining inside the Britain and the mainstream is gradually increasing in Scotland. The general trend all around UK in these elections was the weakening of third parties and the strengthening of two party system. Let it be SNP,Greens or UKIP, all are being further squeezed by resurgence of the two party system. People seem to be interested more these days to be heard on the national stage. The only non major party which succeeded in increasing its numbers was Liberal Democrats that too because of support of those who wanted to remain in EU and this will be a temporary effect. In the long run again, these are the two main parties towards whom the overwhelming majority will see.Conservatives’ Biggest Fears came true: When the Setup was dissolved, not many thought that there could be anything as such as a hung parliament as a result of it. But there do were few Tory voices which opposed the act of calling for an early elections and its results have materialised their biggest fear i.e revival of Labour. The ruling conservatives now know that they are on the loosing side, their rifts with in will further widen, with time their numbers will further diminish and moreover the biggest challenge they face is a leadership crisis!
It is not Theresa May alone who lacks charisma, same goes with the entire conservative high tier leadership. Some thought Boris Johnson would have been a better choice. In my view, had he been the prime ministerial candidate the backlash would have been far bigger. Firstly he could not have been portrayed as the next Margret Tatcher, secondly his speaking skills are worse than that of Theresa and same goes with most of present aspirants of Tory’s Power. If Jeremy Corbyn has to be resisted, Conservatives need a strong charismatic leader who is able to pull big crowds and who is able to set a clearer conservative vision for the future of Britain, a vision which can attract the youngsters.
What a Blunder Theresa May was!
Just being a tory woman aspiring for prime ministership does not make you the next Margret Thatcher, yet proven again through the result of 2017’s election.Theresa May never was somebody whose face could end up conservatives winning the elections, this is something the tory establishment failed to realise. Instead of projecting their policies when they started to project her weak personality, the strategy was destined to backfire! She lacked most of the qualities a leader is supposed to have, from the charisma to the political outreach and skills of expression. Moreover the way in which her campaign was run she emerged as more of a nepotistic character who cared more of her interest than her country’s interest and as a result of it, tories ended up here.
Labour success is no doubt a credit of Mr Corbyn but May’s contribution in it has been extra ordinary as well. She literally played into Labour’s hands. They wanted her to emerge as a capitalist power broker, they wanted to paint her as a symbol of status quo and she day after day materialised their wish. Her slogan ‘Strong and Stable Leadership’ was anything but to the contrary how people visualised her. If Conservatives have to stabilise they urgently need a new and better leadership. A leadership which can stick to the tory vision of politics instead of withering away towards the centre.
What does a Hung Parliament mean for UK?
Whichever party succeeds in forming a new government, the coming days are going to be full of political drama and instability for it. With opposition benches stronger than ever before the problem of the party which forms the government are meant to increase. It would be politically better for Labour to do call for formation of a ‘progressive alliance’ but not form one, because when their opponents will make compromises to form a minority government it will directly help them in winning over more support. For example, if tories form a minority government they will have to make compromises on their Core promises including the proposition of a hard Brexit. This means they will further boost their opposition’s revival and they will further deteriorate their own support by portraying themselves as weak and incompetent incumbents.
Labour’s staying out of power can prove to be a pressurising tool, deadlier than ever before. With their inspirational success they will now get more significance both in international and national media and they will get more weightage among their opponents. By their agitative tactics, they on numerous occasions can further manipulate the divide within the tories, which will end up leaving them more weaker than they are now. This Hung setup won’t last for long. Labour, by playing its cards well, will leave tories to call for another snap elections soon, in which their success if the present scenario doesn’t changes is guaranteed.
Possibilities and Consequence of a Possible Progressive Alliance:
Those parties which fought election on Anti Tory agenda and will not help Labour form a progressive alliance would have grave political consequences to bear i.e Liberal Democrats and DUP. To their voters they would be somebody who cheated their cause, somebody who promised to dent the tory hold and when got chance to form an anti tory government refused to do so. Such Parties will end up loosing sizeable number of their voters to the labours. Only Party other than Labour which is committed to form such an alliance is the Scottish National Party but their numbers aren’t big enough to end up Labour into government. The possibility of a possible Labour minority government is minute and even if Labour forms a government it won’t help it in political terms. The image they right now want of conservatives will then be their image. If Labour doesn’t want to be portrayed as weak and non viable they should better wait!
Prospects of future Scotland Based Progressive seat adjustment:
Tories would not have won 12 seats from Scotland and would have ended up loosing a total of 25, had Labour not contested in the constituencies where it had little chances to win. This would have meant less tory seats and more seats for progressive alliance in shape of SNP’s victories. Next time keeping this in view if labour and Scottish National Party agree to make Scotland specific seat adjustment by which neither of them puts a candidate where other has chances to win, they can emerge far more stronger out of this then they are today.
Next Election: There is no way the tory minority government can last for long. Sooner rather later there will be rifts within the alliance and then when no party will be able to end the political instability they will have no option left but to call for another snap elections and that is when the real victors will emerge.
Author is a political writer and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Disclaimer: Views expressed are exclusively personal and do not necessarily reflect the position of Oracle Opinions.